Pagham Harbour records a strong Sandwich Tern breeding season
The story at a glance
At least 756 pairs of Sandwich Terns bred at RSPB Pagham Harbour in 2026, a record for the reserve according to the RSPB local group. The Guardian report also records 570 fledglings.12
The count follows zero breeding pairs recorded at Pagham in 2023 and 2024. The return is a strong local result, but available evidence does not establish a broader recovery or show what caused the increase.356
The story in brief
What you need to know
- The Pagham count marks a substantial change from recent years: the Solent State of Nature report recorded 335 breeding pairs there in 2022, then none in 2023 or 2024. The 2026 figure is at least 756 pairs, described by the RSPB local group as a reserve record.23
- The reported breeding season included 570 Sandwich Tern fledglings. The Guardian also reported higher fledgling counts for Black-headed Gulls and Little Terns than in 2025, although the supplied reporting does not give those species' totals.1
- Management at Pagham includes vegetation control, predator-exclusion fencing and biosecurity measures. Separately, Natural England describes Solent work to create protected shingle nesting sites for terns and other seabirds. These are reported conservation activities, not evidence that any single measure caused the higher count.24
- The local figures sit within a wider disease impact. An RSPB summary reports a 35% decline in Sandwich Terns in its 2023 survey comparison; a peer-reviewed study estimates that adult mortality in 2022 exceeded 17% of the north-western European breeding population.56
- The earlier loss at Pagham should not be described as a complete absence of breeding in 2022: the Solent report records 335 pairs that year. It also identifies relocation and predation, alongside bird flu, as factors behind local declines.13
Conservation context
Why this matters
Pagham offers a useful local case study for practitioners managing seabird breeding sites after avian influenza. Its sharp change in breeding numbers also shows why local counts need to be interpreted alongside movement between colonies, predation and disease, rather than treated as a measure of recovery across a wider population.356
The developing story
What happens next
The key test is whether strong breeding results persist over several seasons, alongside evidence on survival and productivity. The RSPB calls for continued monitoring, while further counts will be needed to clarify the colony's trajectory and its vulnerability to renewed disease impacts.56
Established evidence
What we know
- The 2026 pair and fledgling figures are reported by news and RSPB local-group sources; the supplied material does not include the underlying survey dataset.12
- The Solent State of Nature report identifies relocation and predation as factors in local seabird changes, in addition to disease.3
- The peer-reviewed study's longer-term recovery estimate is conditional on no further avian influenza outbreaks.6
Open questions
What we don't know
- The supplied reporting does not specify the methods behind the 2026 counts or provide totals for the other species whose fledgling numbers reportedly rose.12
- It is unclear how much of the Pagham increase reflects local recruitment, movement from other Solent colonies or birds arriving from elsewhere.3
- The available figures do not establish whether the higher count will persist across breeding seasons, or how survival and productivity will change.56
- The colony's resilience to future avian influenza outbreaks, predation and habitat pressures remains uncertain.356
Source coverage
