Map estimates 215 million hectares could support tropical forest regeneration

What you need to know

• The map was modelled at 30-metre resolution using observed forest regeneration and environmental predictors. It is intended to show where natural regeneration may be possible, not to certify that every mapped parcel is suitable for a particular restoration project. 1
• The estimated above-ground carbon sequestration potential is 23.4 gigatonnes of carbon over 30 years, with a reported range of 21.1 to 25.7 gigatonnes. This is a conditional estimate, not a guaranteed removal or an observed result. 12
• Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico and Colombia together account for 52% of the mapped regeneration potential. The estimate therefore points to substantial potential concentrated across a small group of countries, as well as areas elsewhere in the tropics. 14
• The study reports 87.9% overall model validation accuracy, but accuracy varies geographically and is lower in parts of Southeast Asia. That variation matters when interpreting local results from a map intended to guide decisions at fine scale. 1
• The authors caution that realised carbon benefits could be lower than the modelled maximum if forests do not establish or persist, or if leakage occurs. The map can inform restoration planning, but it does not demonstrate that restoration has been delivered. 134

Why this matters

A map of potential natural regeneration can help practitioners identify areas to consider when planning forest restoration. Its value is as a planning input, not as a substitute for assessing conditions on the ground or tracking whether forest and carbon outcomes are achieved. 13

What happens next

The study presents the map as a possible aid to restoration planning. Any use of its estimates should take account of the reported geographic variation in model accuracy and the conditions that could reduce realised carbon benefits. 13

What we know

• The study was published on 30 October 2024. 12
• It estimates 215 million hectares of tropical land could support natural forest regeneration. 1
• The reported carbon estimate is 23.4 Gt C over 30 years, with a range of 21.1 to 25.7 Gt C. 12
• The model has 87.9% overall validation accuracy, with lower accuracy in some parts of Southeast Asia. 1

What we don't know

• The mapped potential does not establish how much of the identified land will actually regenerate. 13
• The estimate does not show how much carbon will ultimately be sequestered, since that depends on forest establishment and persistence, among other factors. 1
• The supplied study does not establish whether the mapped potential will translate into restoration outcomes at particular sites. 1

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