Fires and monitoring gaps challenge Mozambique’s forest restoration

What you need to know

• A local government technician cited in Mongabay’s report said fires destroyed 70% of trees replanted across a 10-hectare area in Tónduè Forest. District data cited in the same report put the survival rate for trees replanted in 2023 at 30%. The sources do not establish the method or observation period behind those figures. 1
• Zambézia officials told Mongabay that forest sites were typically visited once a year, compared with a stated ideal of quarterly monitoring until planted trees mature. This is reported interview evidence, not a province-wide monitoring dataset, and indicates a gap between the reported visit frequency and the stated approach. 1
• Mozambique’s official forest-monitoring platform estimates average annual deforestation at 267,029 hectares, with an uncertainty interval of approximately 12,000 hectares, for 2003–2013. It identifies Nampula, Zambézia and Manica among the provinces with the highest annual rates. These historical estimates should not be treated as a measure of current restoration outcomes. 2
• The agriculture and environment ministry has set a target of restoring 52,000 hectares annually through 2029 and announced a budget of 105 billion meticais. The announcement describes planned scale and funding, but does not show how much money has been released or how much land has been restored. 3
• A Centre for Public Integrity assessment of the Zambézia Integrated Landscape Management Programme reported achievement of 17.7% of its emissions-reduction target and minimal benefits for local communities. Its findings concern that programme; a separate study of another Mozambique project found some lasting local benefits, so the projects should not be conflated. 45

Why this matters

Tree planting alone does not show whether restoration is succeeding. Fire damage, limited follow-up and weakly documented outcomes make it difficult to assess whether planted areas are surviving and whether national ambitions are translating into results on the ground. 123

What happens next

The sources do not establish how much of the announced budget has been released or what area has been restored under the annual target. Clearer reporting on planting survival, monitoring and independently verified outcomes would help assess progress against the plans. 13

What we know

• The official national deforestation estimate is based on analysis for 2003–2013, not a current annual measurement. 2
• The reported Tónduè survival and fire figures come from district information and a local government technician cited by Mongabay. 1
• The Centre for Public Integrity assessment describes fieldwork and interviews, and notes limited cooperation from the national fund in sharing information. 4
• A separate academic evaluation examined a different Mozambique REDD+ project and found that conservation effects persisted but weakened after the project ended. 5

What we don't know

• The reporting does not specify the method, observation period or verification process behind the Tónduè tree-survival figures. 1
• The sources do not say how much of the announced 105-billion-metical budget has been released, or how much land has been restored under the annual target. 3
• Independently verified outcomes from the transfer of Tónduè Forest management to the local community are not provided in the supplied reporting. 1
• The sources use differing measures and periods for forest loss, tree-cover loss, reforestation and restoration; their figures therefore cannot be directly compared without further detail. 12

Read the reporting

This WildNews briefing synthesises and summarises reporting from the sources below. WildNews did not produce the original reporting. Learn more about how we use AI