Ethiopia’s tree-planting drive brings mixed evidence on forest recovery
The story at a glance
Launched in 2019, Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative aims to plant 50 billion seedlings. The programme includes forest planting as well as agroforestry, fruit, fodder, fuelwood and ornamental planting, so the target is not a count of native forest trees alone.2
National forest-cover figures have improved, but local studies report different seedling-survival outcomes. The available evidence does not establish how much of the national change is attributable to the initiative.3456
The story in brief
What you need to know
- The government’s forest-cover mapping report records forest cover rising from 15.5% in 2013 to 23.6% in 2023, while annual deforestation fell from 92,000 hectares to 27,703 hectares. These figures describe national change, not the programme’s individual contribution.34
- A 2026 field study counted 35,599 surviving seedlings out of 44,501 planted in 2023 in selected South Ethiopia communities—about 80%. The four species assessed were exotic, and the result applies to those sites and conditions, not the country as a whole.5
- In Gubalafto district, a 2025 study reported average seedling survival of 39.8% for 2019–2024, with annual estimates ranging from 7.59% to 76.5%. The figures came from administrative records and were not independently checked in the field.6
- The Gubalafto satellite analysis found forest cover declined between 2016 and 2020, then partly recovered by 2024; woodland expanded over the longer period. The study discusses restoration and conflict as possible influences but does not attribute the changes solely to the initiative.6
- The Grist feature reports expert concerns that planting targets may outpace aftercare and landscape planning. A government adviser quoted in the feature says experts provide farmers with planting and care advice; the reporting does not establish how consistently this support reaches people nationwide.1
Conservation context
Why this matters
Planting totals are not the same as lasting forest recovery. Survival, care after planting, and choices about species and sites affect what the programme achieves, while the evidence currently covers different places and methods.156
The developing story
What happens next
The evidence gaps point to a need for longer-term, independently verifiable monitoring that distinguishes regions, species and planting purposes. That would help clarify seedling survival and how much national forest-cover change can be linked to the initiative.56
Established evidence
What we know
- The Green Legacy Initiative began in 2019 and has an overall target of 50 billion seedlings across several planting categories.2
- The national forest-cover report records an increase in forest cover and a fall in annual deforestation between 2013 and 2023.34
- Studies report different survival results in selected South Ethiopia sites and Gubalafto, using different methods and periods.56
- The initiative’s planting includes purposes beyond native-forest restoration, and one local study assessed four exotic species.25
Open questions
What we don't know
- The proportion of seedlings surviving over several years across regions, species and planting purposes is not established by the supplied evidence.56
- The available national figures do not show how much forest-cover change was caused by the Green Legacy Initiative rather than other changes.346
- The share of planting devoted to native-species forest restoration, compared with other planting purposes, is not established.125
- The reporting does not settle how consistently planting and aftercare advice is delivered nationwide.1
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