ForestsConservation PracticePeople & Communities

A millennium of evidence links colonial land-use change to fire risk in southeastern Australia

Ecological / Economic95 / 5
EcologicalEconomic
Evidence / Opinion85 / 15
EvidenceOpinion
Consensus / Contested75 / 25
ConsensusContested
Tall eucalyptus trees with peeling bark in a forest with vibrant autumn foliage
Illustrative image by Hao Wu on Unsplash | Unsplash License
WildfiresIndigenous Peoples and Local Communities

Published 26 October 2026. This story may be updated as it develops.

The story at a glance

A study of sediment from one site in Croajingolong National Park reconstructs about 1,000 years of vegetation and fire history. The researchers report a post-colonial shift towards denser eucalypt cover, alongside indicators of hotter fires and increased soil erosion. 123

The authors link these changes, including disruption of cultural burning, with greater landscape flammability. They argue that Indigenous knowledge and cultural burning should inform future fire management, but the reporting does not present measured results from a new intervention. 13

What you need to know

  • The sediment record indicates that the site remained open woodland for more than 800 years before a marked post-colonial change. The study reports an approximately fourfold increase in eucalypt cover, as well as hotter-fire indicators and increased erosion. 12
  • The researchers interpret the findings as evidence that colonial land-use legacies altered the landscape in ways that increased its flammability. Their account links the disruption of Indigenous fire management with these changes, rather than treating fire risk as solely a product of current climate conditions. 13
  • The study also argues that colonial land-use change amplified the influence of climate change on fire risk. This is the authors’ interpretation of the record, not a measurement of the relative contribution of each driver across Australia. 13
  • The findings come from one sediment core at Purghagoolah, also known as Lake Elusive, on Gunaikurnai Country. They provide a detailed local reconstruction, but the sources caution against assuming that one site represents fire and vegetation histories across the whole country. 123
  • The researchers recommend integrating Indigenous knowledge and cultural burning into future fire management. The reporting presents this as a direction for practice, not as a tested intervention with demonstrated outcomes at the study site. 13

Why this matters

The reconstruction connects historical land-management disruption with present concerns about wildfire vulnerability, and places Indigenous fire stewardship within that discussion. Its single-site scope means the evidence is most direct for this landscape, not a national account of wildfire causes. 123

What happens next

The sources recommend that Indigenous knowledge and cultural burning inform fire management, but do not describe a specific planned intervention or evaluation. Further work could test how well this record reflects other landscapes and assess the outcomes of Traditional Owner-led burning over time. 123

What we know

  • The reconstruction uses a sediment core from Purghagoolah, also known as Lake Elusive, in Croajingolong National Park. 3
  • The record covers about 1,000 years of vegetation and fire history at the site. 3
  • The sources agree that the study associates post-colonial land-management change with denser eucalypt cover and indicators of more intense fire at the site. 123

What we don't know

  • It is not established how well the Lake Elusive record represents fire and vegetation histories elsewhere in southeastern Australia. 12
  • The reporting does not show what outcomes Traditional Owner-led cultural burning would produce in this landscape, or how those outcomes would be assessed over time. 13
  • The sources do not establish how colonial land-use legacies interact with current climate conditions and other wildfire drivers across different landscapes. 12
  • The collected reporting draws largely on the same study and does not provide independent replication of its findings. 12

Read the reporting

This WildNews briefing synthesises and summarises reporting from the sources below. WildNews did not produce the original reporting. Learn more about how we use AI

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